When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, markets stop breathing for a moment. Interest rates are the heartbeat of the U.S. financial system, and every FOMC decision sends ripples through mortgages, credit cards, business loans, and global markets. Understanding how often the Fed moves, when they last acted, and what’s coming next gives you a real edge.
How Often Does the FOMC Change Interest Rates?
The FOMC meets eight times per year, roughly every six weeks. But here’s the key: They do NOT change rates at every meeting.
Historically, the Fed adjusts rates only when economic conditions force their hand — inflation, unemployment, growth, or financial instability. In some years, they move multiple times. In others, they hold steady for long stretches.
What Was the Most Recent Rate Change?
As of May 2026, the most recent change was:
✔ March 2026 — A 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut
This move brought the federal funds target range down to 3.50%–3.75%, which the April meeting then held steady on an 8–4 split vote.
Why it mattered:
- Inflation cooled faster than expected
- Labor market softened slightly
- The Fed signaled a cautious shift toward easing
This was Powell’s final meeting as Chair, adding political and historical weight to the decision.
When Is the Next Possible Rate Change?
The next scheduled FOMC meeting after the April minutes is:
✔ June 2026 FOMC Meeting
This is the next opportunity for a rate move. Markets always price in expectations ahead of time, and right now all eyes are on June.
What’s the Likelihood of a Rate Change — And By How Much?
Based on current market pricing, Fed Funds futures, and commentary from Fed officials:
✔ Probability of a June 2026 Rate Move
- Rate cut probability: ~60%
- Rate hold probability: ~40%
- Rate hike probability: effectively 0%
The Fed is clearly in a wait‑and‑see posture, but leaning toward easing if inflation continues to glide downward.
✔ Expected Size of the Next Move
If the Fed cuts in June, markets expect:
A 25 basis point (0.25%) cut
A larger 50 bps cut is extremely unlikely unless:
- Inflation collapses
- Job losses accelerate
- A financial shock emerges
Right now, none of those conditions are present.
Bottom Line
The FOMC is entering a delicate phase: inflation is cooling, but not fast enough to justify aggressive cuts. The most recent move was a modest 25 bps cut in March, and the next opportunity comes in June. Markets are leaning toward another small cut — but the Fed is signaling caution.
If you follow interest rates, the next few meetings will be some of the most consequential in years.